Drivers of climate variability and increasing water salinity impacts on the farmer’s income risk with future outlook mitigation
نویسندگان
چکیده
Purpose The main aim of this study is to investigate the impact climate change and water salinity on farmer’s income risk with future outlook mitigation. Salinity are a threat agricultural productivity worldwide. However, combined effects impacts farmers' not well understood, particularly in developing countries. Design/methodology/approach response-yield function general maximum entropy methods were used predict temperature, precipitation crop yield. target minimization total absolute deviations (MOTAD)-positive mathematical programming model was simulate socioeconomic environmental indicators. In end, multicriteria decision-making used, aiming at selection suitable scenarios. Findings results revealed that shows significantly decreasing trend, while temperature groundwater (EC) illustrate increasing trend. Climate EC negatively farmer's shadow prices. Maximum reduction prices observed for A2 scenario (−12.4% 19.4%) during 2050. index most important, priority 43.4% compared Subindex amount also significant area, 28.1% priority. technique order preference by similarity ideal solution ranking system found B1 best climatic adopting adaptation research region. Originality/value study, threats assessed aspects different (A1, A1B B1) over horizons 2030, 2040 2050 three indicators (economic, social environmental) Northwestern region Pakistan. Only arid semiarid regions has raised reduced rainfall, which preliminary symptoms growing salinity.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['1756-8706', '1756-8692']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/ijccsm-08-2021-0092